End of Year Report: 2025
Introduction
The year 2025 was marked by many significant events, including but not limited to the return of Donald Trump to the White House after his defeat in 2020, a dramatic increase in political violence, the longest government shutdown ever, and several Supreme Court decisions, including ones limiting nationwide injunctions, rejecting of limiting excessive force lawsuits, and affirming parents’ ability to excuse children from LGBT content. As expected, these things would receive extensive media attention. What received significantly less attention is the composition changes the federal courts faced this year. Not many articles have been made on the topic of Biden’s appointments beginning their service in January (constituting ~15% of the total judicial turnover) or the significant number of GWB appointees taking senior status, giving Trump several opportunities to significantly influence the courts. Nor how more district courts shifted left in terms of appointments than right. This brings us to the goal of this report: filling in this gap of attention. Knowledge is power, and a more informed public provides meaningful oversight and accountability. A president’s impact on the courts can last decades, and thus, by voting on a presidential candidate, the public is also voting on the future of the courts, even if they may not know it. At Judicial Hub, we hope you come out of reading and viewing these easy-to-view visuals more informed. If you get any value out of this report, please share it to inform others as well.
More District Courts Swung Left While More Circuit Courts Swung Right
Despite Appointments, Many Courts Swung Left
Biden’s Judicial Impact Lingered in the Background
…these Biden appointees
account for…14.7%
Although often overlooked, former President Biden’s impact on the judiciary extended into 2025, with 10 appointments beginning service in January. Of the 10 judges, 9 are on the district courts, and 1 is on the circuit courts. While these Biden appointees account for 1% of all judges today, they accounted for 14.7% of judicial turnover in 2025. The 10 appointments affected 10 separate courts, representing 25.6% of the 39 courts that faced changes. Below is a list of the 10 judges.
- Embry Kidd for the 11th Circuit
- Sharad H. Desai for the District of Arizona
- Serena Murillo for the Central District of California
- Benjamin J. Cheeks for the Southern District of California
- Sparkle L. Sooknanan for the District of DC
- Tiffany R. Johnson for the Northern District of Georgia
- Sarah M. Davenport for the District of New Mexico
- Gail A. Weilheimer for the Eastern and Keli M. Neary for the Middle District of Pennsylvania
- Melissa R. DuBose for the District of Rhode Island
Trump Appointed a Middling Amount of Judges
President Trump has appointed 26 judges this year, which is exactly the average amount of the past 7 presidents (including Trump’s 1st term) in their first year. To be clear, this is still significant. He appointed more judges than H.W. Bush, Obama, and himself during his first term. A president in their first year is primarily focused on appointing members of the executive branch, which takes up a great deal of time, especially if the party of the president is different than the one that controls the Senate. As a result, confirmation of judges doesn’t happen until May unless there is a situation like a Supreme Court vacancy, like under Trump’s 1st term.
Nominees Received Bipartisan Support, but Not Much
Of the total 26 nominees confirmed by the Senate, which is controlled by Republicans, only 7 received bipartisan support in their confirmations. Collectively, these 7 nominees received 43 votes from Democratic senators. The median crossover vote (support from across the aisle) for all the confirmations was 0, and the average is about 2 votes. This is significant as it is notably lower than the bipartisan support received under the previous 2 presidents. During President Biden’s 1st year (2021), his Article 3 nominees received a median crossover vote of 3, with an average of 6. These are the same numbers as throughout his term. Under Trump’s 1st year of his first term, his nominees received 4 and about 17, respectively. Throughout his term, the median increased to 12, and the average slightly to about 18. It should be noted that a significant chunk of his nominees were confirmed by voice vote, and thus, the number of Democratic senators who would have voted for the nominee is unknown.
Today, the bipartisan support of the 7 nominees came from 18 Democratic senators. Of the 18 senators, 5 are from states won by Trump in 2024. You can see more detailed info here. To keep it short, the most bipartisan senator in terms of judicial nominees this term is a 3-way tie between Angus King (I-ME), who is an independent but caucuses with Democrats, Richard Durbin (D-IL), and Tim Kaine (D-VA).
Vacancies Rise, but Many Are Filled
On January 1st, 2025, there was a total of 37 vacancies. One year later, the number has increased to 40. Despite Trump’s 26 appointments, as well as Biden appointees beginning service, the number of vacancies increased. This isn’t unexpected, as judges often retire/take senior status under a new president, whether for political reasons or otherwise. Of the 37 vacancies that existed as of January 1, 2025, Trump replaced 17 of them (~46%), and in turn, flipped 13 judgeships. The 37 vacancies are notably lower than the 49 vacancies on January 1st, 2021, the year Biden took office, and significantly lower than the 112 vacancies on January 1, 2017, the year Trump first became president. You can see the current vacancies here. Currently, 39 vacancies are located in the district courts, with 1 on the Court of International Trade. Below, you can see the number of vacancies on the district courts and the Court of International Trade.
Looking Forward
Looking forward, there are currently 40 vacancies (39 Article 3 vacancies) and 9 future vacancies (all Article 3). It would seem that Trump and the Republican Majority Senate will have an easy time getting conservative nominees to fill the courts. This is true for most of the vacancies; however, 13 of them are protected by what’s called the “Blue Slip” tradition. Keeping it brief, the tradition requires approval for district court nominees by both home-state senators, which includes Democrats. For example, for the District of Massachusetts, the Trump administration would need to find a compromise nominee with the 2 MA Democratic senators. Another way is to appoint a conservative judge along with a liberal one. Both approaches have been done in the past, including doing his first term. This year might not be the year of compromising. Trump could refuse to cooperate at all, leading to increased calls for the abolishment of the tradition by conservatives. Trump could also just not try at all in filling these vacancies. He certainly doesn’t have a huge incentive for looking at other courts.
Trump can likely appoint
a total of 65-80 judges.
It is worth noting that the vacancies are expected to increase this year. This is illustrated by the number of judges who are currently eligible and will become eligible by the end of the year. This is especially shown in GWB judges, as many have already taken senior status under Trump so far. As of now, 50 out of the 90 GWB appointees on the courts are eligible for senior status, but the decision to take senior status would be completely up to them. With more vacancies, more opportunities for Republicans to fill them. It is not out of the question for Trump to exceed his number of appointments this year, seeing how he already did in 2025, as the confirmations graphic shows. Trump can likely appoint a total of 65-80 judges this year.
Projection: We are trying something experimental: creating a projection of what the future may look like. It’s unlikely that by the end of 2026, the projection will match exactly. This is due to several factors, like unpredictable senior status requests or deaths, the level of cooperation with the Trump administration and Democrats for Democratic-protected districts, the busyness of the Senate, and the speed of the administration in nominating potential judges. We also can’t rule out judges reversing course when they see who their replacement is or when the opposite party is in the White House, as it has already happened this term. Democrat appointees Fourth Circuit Judge James Wynn, Western NC District Judge Max O. Cogburn, and Southern OH District Judge Algenon L. Marbley are judges who rescinded their senior status plans when it was expected that Trump would become president again. As for the projection, we are using current and future vacancies. This year, the administration will likely fill all the vacancies in districts not protected by Democrats, especially the districts in Texas. In protected districts, Republicans will likely have to find a compromise candidate as Senate Republicans are adamant about not gutting the Blue Slip tradition (or they may just ignore these districts). These nominees would likely not be as conservative as in other districts, like those in the South. Like in a previous visual, courts that are likely to face changes, but have a net shift of zero, are not shown (ex: the 8th Circuit). Overall, Article 3 district courts would shift net 6.9% rightward. Excluding Democratic protected districts, the courts shift 4.7%, a considerably smaller number.
Excluding Democrat Protected Districts, Two Districts Move Left